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Which OEM Auto Makers will Survive by 2030?

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  • Which OEM Auto Makers will Survive by 2030?

    I am aware that this whole EV thing is annoying to some here. You’ll just have to take my word that my goal isn’t to aggravate forum members, simply to share some insights I’ve learned as to where our auto industry is going (and only secondarily what is going on with EV adoption). Just don’t shoot the messenger.


    In previous posts I’ve mentioned that we are undergoing a major transition. This is the same change in society as when, within a very few years not that long ago, three major changes in technology came about which greatly impacted our nation:

    · General electrification,
    · The widespread availability of the telephone, and,
    · The replacement of animal motive power with the internal combustion engine car

    I think it fair to say that most of the members of this forum knew people who, when they were growing up, had no access to electrical power, the use of telephones or even had access to automobiles.

    Grandpa Sam (dad's father), WWI machine gunner on a flying boat (looked for German subs). Born before 1900.


    Grandpa Ben (mom's dad), "doughboy" WWI. Fought in Europe. Born before 1900.


    I believe, based on what I’ve both read and seen, that with the exception of one United States based automobile manufacturer (Tesla), our nation may well loose the majority of our established, entrenched, American OEM car makers.

    This is not a desire on my part, simply a recognition of the reality of the situation which I see unfolding.

    There is an Altman “Z” Score, which dates from the late 1960s, which indicates the health of companies based on several factors. Below is a copy of the formula, which I do not pretend to understand.

    Altman "Z" Formula


    The Altman Z-score is the output of a credit-strength test that gauges a publicly traded manufacturing company's likelihood of bankruptcy. Based on this formula the majority of our country’s OEM car makers will be unlikely to survive into the 2030s.

    The amount of debt our major OEMs are carrying is crushing:

    Industry debt as of April 2021



    Below is a representation for “Safe,” Grey,” and “Danger” zones based on the Altman formula. If this representation is correct then of the auto manufacturers shown only Tesla will be with us at the end of this decade.

    Risk Zone


    Where do I think this is all going? Unless there is a dramatic change in how our nation supports its base manufacturing, as well as ensuring we are not at the mercy of other nations for needed basic materials and components, we will find ourselves in a great deal of trouble.

    Back to who will we buy our cars from come the near future? My best guess is, China. No, I’m not thrilled, just facing reality. The same thing will happen to our car industry, and likely Europe’s as well, as happened to us back in the 1970 when the Japanese annihilated the United States auto industry. There was a time, not that long ago, when GM (1962) held 50% of the market share for cars here. Ford held 29% in 1961. Now those two companies manage but 13% for GM and 12% for Ford.

    “We” got fat, lazy and stupid. That’s no way to go through life... Those heading those companies were in denial.

    China’s population are the largest purchasers of cars in the world. That nation is transitioning to EVs, not because they want to “save the planet” but because the emissions from ICE vehicles makes the air in their urban areas unbreathable.

    During the remainder to this decade I “think” we’ll see the following take place. China will be first to transition to virtually total use of electrically powered cars, followed by Europe, with us coming aboard at the very tail end.

    Here’s a couple of “what ifs” for you to consider. Once China starts pushing their vehicles first to Europe then eventually to this country this is how car shares may well break down:

    2030 World's Top OEMs


    If the other than Chinese car manufacturers located in that nation drag their feet in the transition to EV production there is also the possibility for the Chinese to nationalize the non-Chinese companies. Which might result in what you see below in 2030:

    2030 if China Nationalizes Non-Chinese Auto Makers



    Who knows where this is going? None the less, I’m confident our current batch of older car companies are not moving quickly enough to protect their (and our) interests. Which is tragic.

    This YouTube video is about forty minutes long. I found this overview of the situation I’ve just written about interesting:

    Your Move OEMs...Who Will Survive?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g63SJwFdGTQ

  • #2
    Cape I for one have never found your posts annoying. Keep your insightful thinking and thoughtful analysis and opinions coming. Happy Thanksgiving!

    Comment


    • #3
      People will still be driving gas powered cars well past my death. Electric cars are going to evolve so much that the consumer will not be able to keep up with it. EVs will be upper middle class toys.

      Now when you can have a grid to support charging faster than pumping gas while on the road, then we can revisit it's feasibility. As it is, a drive from NYC to West Palm Beach is 18-19 hrs. I fill my tank 3 times in less than 10 minutes each time. How many times and how long do I have to wait for an EV charge? Add that to my drive time. Is it a 35 - 40 hr trip?

      It's basic mathematics. Gas is still cheaper and far easier to utilize. Give me a car that runs on hydrogen instead and I can carry my own fuel.
      "We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm."
      George Orwell

      Comment


      • #4
        I live in South Florida where sunlight is plentiful and am in the process of buying solar panels for my house. I don't run the AC or pool pump 24/7 as it is now, and have been toying with the idea of buying a used Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf as a local runabout to try the solar off my house out. Dusty I do agree with you, if everything else is equal, I would be inclined to use hydrogen vice electric (in their current form off today's grid network). How can you go wrong with H2O as the only waste product and the actual element is plentiful in seawater. I know I'm oversimplifying that but that's what American innovation is for (or what it used to be.) If we are resigned to go EVs then we better start thinking about getting back into the nuclear game.

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        • #5
          I am not a fan of the EV.

          But next year, when I’m fully retired, I will probably by one as a run around car.

          My long trips will be in a gas hog.
          Even a broken clock is right twice a day, unless it's a military clock. The above post was not approved or corrected for grammar and syntax, or checked for spelling by the forums administrators.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by PressurePointCop View Post
            Cape I for one have never found your posts annoying. Keep your insightful thinking and thoughtful analysis and opinions coming. Happy Thanksgiving!
            Thanks!

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Dustoff262 View Post
              People will still be driving gas powered cars well past my death. Electric cars are going to evolve so much that the consumer will not be able to keep up with it. EVs will be upper middle class toys.

              Now when you can have a grid to support charging faster than pumping gas while on the road, then we can revisit it's feasibility. As it is, a drive from NYC to West Palm Beach is 18-19 hrs. I fill my tank 3 times in less than 10 minutes each time. How many times and how long do I have to wait for an EV charge? Add that to my drive time. Is it a 35 - 40 hr trip?

              It's basic mathematics. Gas is still cheaper and far easier to utilize. Give me a car that runs on hydrogen instead and I can carry my own fuel.
              "People will still be driving gas powered cars well past my death."

              I'm sure that is correct.

              "As it is, a drive from NYC to West Palm Beach is 18-19 hrs. I fill my tank 3 times in less than 10 minutes each time. How many times and how long do I have to wait for an EV charge? Add that to my drive time. Is it a 35 - 40 hr trip?"

              A couple of hours or so more. I'll have to calculate it for you when I have some more time.

              "Give me a car that runs on hydrogen instead and I can carry my own fuel."

              Hydrogen? Nope, a non-starter. Expensive to produce (you have to start with methane), hard to store and move around. I am confident that hydrogen, except for very special uses (might be good for aerial taxis for one application) won't be in common usage for transport purposes.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by 899xxxandretired View Post
                I am not a fan of the EV.

                But next year, when I’m fully retired, I will probably by one as a run around car.

                My long trips will be in a gas hog.
                If you'd like some info on what EV out there would best suite your purpose give me a PM and I'll share what I know about the current batch out there now.

                Comment


                • #9
                  "As it is, a drive from NYC to West Palm Beach is 18-19 hrs. I fill my tank 3 times in less than 10 minutes each time. How many times and how long do I have to wait for an EV charge? Add that to my drive time. Is it a 35 - 40 hr trip?"

                  Your wish is my command!! Below data comes from the very accurate travel app, A Better Route Planner. Two hours of charging time for this trip:
                  Waypoint Arrival SoC Depart SoC Cost Charge duration Distance
                  New York (New York City), NY, USA 100% 266 mi
                  Stafford, VA Supercharger [Tesla] 17% 85% $13 28 min 236 mi
                  Smithfield, NC Supercharger [Tesla] 10% 77% $7 26 min 218 mi
                  St. George, SC Supercharger [Tesla] 10% 89% $7 33 min 255 mi
                  St. Augustine, FL - Inman Road Supercharger [Tesla] 10% 88% $15 32 min 252 mi
                  West Palm Beach, Palm Beach, Florida 10%
                  30 h 51 min 1 h 57 min 1225 mi

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Here is what the trip looks like on a map (Tesla model Y):


                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by CapeCodOTJ View Post
                      "As it is, a drive from NYC to West Palm Beach is 18-19 hrs. I fill my tank 3 times in less than 10 minutes each time. How many times and how long do I have to wait for an EV charge? Add that to my drive time. Is it a 35 - 40 hr trip?"

                      Your wish is my command!! Below data comes from the very accurate travel app, A Better Route Planner. Two hours of charging time for this trip:
                      Waypoint Arrival SoC Depart SoC Cost Charge duration Distance
                      New York (New York City), NY, USA 100% 266 mi
                      Stafford, VA Supercharger [Tesla] 17% 85% $13 28 min 236 mi
                      Smithfield, NC Supercharger [Tesla] 10% 77% $7 26 min 218 mi
                      St. George, SC Supercharger [Tesla] 10% 89% $7 33 min 255 mi
                      St. Augustine, FL - Inman Road Supercharger [Tesla] 10% 88% $15 32 min 252 mi
                      West Palm Beach, Palm Beach, Florida 10%
                      30 h 51 min 1 h 57 min 1225 mi
                      So a 30 hr trip is really around 40 hrs because you can't stay awake past 18 hrs and drive safely. When the trip is more than 18, you have to shut down at some point and get a solid 8 hrs of sleep.
                      "We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm."
                      George Orwell

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Dustoff262 View Post

                        So a 30 hr trip is really around 40 hrs because you can't stay awake past 18 hrs and drive safely. When the trip is more than 18, you have to shut down at some point and get a solid 8 hrs of sleep.
                        Not sure of your point. A couple of things. First, I don't drive straight through on a trip as you describe. Wifey and I have driven, in EVs, back and forth from AZ>Cape Cod>AZ, three times. We take our time, speed is around 75 tops and I like to stop every 150 or so miles for a pee break (not much of an option on that one!).

                        We have been taking six days for these trips. Next trip (end of May 2022) we're gonna try for a five day run (total miles is around 2,800, so if you do the math it's a bit under 600 miles per day of travel). We'll see how that goes. Our observation has been, once I've plugged the Tesla in, walked to the nearest bathroom, maybe found something to drink and/or eat, and get back to the car we're charged!

                        I'll printout this last trip in a moment to show you what I mean.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I know I have a full breakdown of number of stops and the time I spent at each for this last trip, but I can't find the damn file. Here's an overview of our last trip from Cape Cod to AZ, via North Carolina (visiting a friend):


                          EV road-trip in a Tesla model Y from Cape Cod to South of Tucson AZ ~ Sat. Oct 9th ~ Sun Oct 17th

                          Started at 8,900 miles on odometer, ended with 12,335. 3,345 miles total.

                          28 Superchargers used during trip (Tesla fast chargers)

                          First two days were headed to old friend of 45 years, John. He and his wife live in Ocean Isle Beach NC.

                          Left John’s place Wed morning and the trip went without a hitch except for two “incidents.”

                          Coming out of San Antonio on Friday we were hit with a massive rainstorm. Weather had been fine till then, and the rain/lightning came at a really bad place, where multiple roads connected coming out of San Antonio. Had to drive through a “river” at one point which, based on how high the water was coming up to on other cars going through the water it had to reach mid wheel height. Not fun. Weather was great once out of that mess!

                          The second event was on day four. We left Boerne TX and our first stop was at Junction TX, a Supercharger site. There were eight charging stations (eight plugs) but only two stations worked! And those at pretty low power. I called Tesla and was told they’d send out a repair crew.

                          Cost of Superchargers for entire trip; $176.35

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by CapeCodOTJ View Post

                            If you'd like some info on what EV out there would best suite your purpose give me a PM and I'll share what I know about the current batch out there now.
                            Thank You Cape.
                            Even a broken clock is right twice a day, unless it's a military clock. The above post was not approved or corrected for grammar and syntax, or checked for spelling by the forums administrators.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Ad if you et off I-95 and go inland, you will need a loooong extension cord because charging stations are few and far apart. I visited a couple in Cola, SC; most were in Industrial wastelands at car dealerships. The one at a nearby Walmart was blocked by one of their 18 wheelers and it looked like it would be there for the weekend. We are nowhere ready for it. 10 years? Maybe.

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